Brentford and Isleworth - AV Election Results

First Past the Post

Mary Macleod (Conservative)

Nationwide

Across the UK a switch to AV is estimated to:

Cause the Conservatives to lose 22 seats
Cause Labour to lose 10 seats
Cause the Lib Dems to gain 32 seats
Allow the Lib Dems to form a coalition with either party
Details for previous elections can be found here

Referendum 5th May

There will be a referendum to decide whether we should change to the Alternative Vote system to elect MPs.
More information can be found from the electoral commision

Alternative Vote

Ann Keen (Labour)

Round 1

Round 1: As no candidate has 50% of the vote, Paul Winnet (BNP) is eliminated
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Round 2

Round 2: As no candidate has 50% of the vote, John Hunt (Green) is eliminated
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Round 3

Round 3: As no candidate has 50% of the vote, Jason Hargreaves (UKIP) is eliminated
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Round 4

Round 4: As no candidate has 50% of the vote, Andrew Dakers (Lib Dem) is eliminated
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Round 5

Round 5: As Ann Keen (Labour) has more than 50% of the votes, they are elected
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How AV Works

In an AV election, a candidate must have the support of 50% of those voting in order to be elected.
In the first round of voting, everyone's first preference of candidate is counted. If they have 50% of the vote, they are elected
If no-one has 50% the candidate with the lowest votes is eliminated. Their votes are then redistributed according to the highest remaining preference.
If a candidate then has 50% of the vote, they are elected. If not, candidates continue to be eliminated until one has 50% of the vote.

Method

This website is based on research done by Sanders, Clarke, Stewart and Whiteley which was published in Parliamentry Affairs.

For those who don't want to read the whole article, they took data from British Election Study from the University of Essex, which asked 13,356 people to fill out a mock AV ballot form after the election. Using this, they calculated the percentage of second preferences that would be expressed for each of the first preferences on the ballot. This data was then applied to the constituencies to get the results.

There are some health warnings that should be kept in mind when using this data:

It assumes the people voted in the election with their true first preference and that no tactical voting took place
It ignores local effects and therefore assumes that votes will transfer uniformly accross the whole country

Minor parties were excluded from this calculation due to a lack of data

AV ResultsBrentford and Isleworth