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This website is based on research done by Sanders, Clarke, Stewart and Whiteley which was published in Parliamentry Affairs.

For those who don't want to read the whole article, they took data from British Election Study from the University of Essex, which asked 13,356 people to fill out a mock AV ballot form after the election. Using this, they calculated the percentage of second preferences that would be expressed for each of the first preferences on the ballot. This data was then applied to the constituencies to get the results.

There are some health warnings that should be kept in mind when using this data:

• It assumes the people voted in the election with their true first preference and that no tactical voting took place
• It ignores local effects and therefore assumes that votes will transfer uniformly accross the whole country

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Based on research by Sanders, Clarke, Stewart and Whiteley